Compared to the EU, Croatia has a higher disease burden and mortality rate, even when accounting for its on average older population. Furthermore, it seems we are becoming an increasingly unhealthier nation as the healthy lifespan between 2012 and 2019 has declined, meaning Croatians now spend more than a quarter of their lives in poor health. Croatia has the highest overall cancer mortality rate, the highest mortality rate from colorectal cancers, and the second-highest mortality rate from respiratory cancers of all EU27+UK countries, and generally for most common causes of death, we rank in the bottom quartile. However, not all is bleak – by 2040, using already existing technology and approaches, Croatia could reduce its disease burden by 34%, translating to an average of 27 additional healthy days per person annually. This would imply that by 2040, there could be as many as 100,000 fewer disease-induced fatalities, and an average 65-year-old could be as healthy as today's 55-year-old. This scenario would add up to nine billion euros to Croatia's annual GDP by 2040, resulting from reduced premature deaths and severe health conditions and increased productivity.

Prevention is key to improving population health, with over 70% of the improvement achievable through prevention rather than treatment. This suggests that Croatia could emphasize prevention and more efficient healthcare to address the worrying health status of the nation and realize long-term savings, rather than focusing directly on reducing public health expenses. After all, Croatia spent just 5.6% of its GDP to public healthcare before the pandemic, which was below the EU27+UK average of 6.2%. When looking at overall healthcare spend, the gap widens as Croatia spent about 6.9% of its GDP, while the EU27+UK average was around 8.4%.

While Croatia already spends around 3% of its health budget on preventive measures, above the EU27+UK average (2.6%), it could consider reallocating and reprioritising its preventive efforts to further cut mortality and disease burden. This could be achieved by focusing on key risk factors such as high blood pressure, poor diet, and tobacco smoking – the three largest contributors to mortality and disease in Croatia where it lags behind the group nations.

You can read the full analysis at the following links Part 1 and Part 2.